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| Chen, Gang; Roberts, Matthew C.; Roe, Brian E.. |
| The central part of pricing agricultural commodity futures options is to find appropriate stochastic process of the underlying assets. The Black's (1976) futures option pricing model laid the foundation for a new era of futures option valuation theory. The geometric Brownian motion assumption girding the Black's model, however, has been regarded as unrealistic in numerous empirical studies. Option pricing models incorporating discrete jumps and stochastic volatility have been studied extensively in the literature. This study tests the performance of major alternative option pricing models and attempts to find the appropriate model for pricing commodity futures options. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19183 |
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| Chen, Gang; Roberts, Matthew C.; Roe, Brian E.. |
| The costs of corn- and soybean-based feeds compose a substantial proportion of the variable costs faced by both mainstream and emergent confined livestock producers. This research develops a method to provide a joint distribution of prices of corn and soybean meal at a future time. Black's 1976 option model and stochastic volatility jump diffusion (SVJD) model are compared in volatility forecasting performance. In general, SVJD is superior to Black's model, though their performance is both commodity-specific and forecasting horizon specific. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19048 |
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| Chen, Gang; Roberts, Matthew C.; Roe, Brian E.. |
| The costs of corn- and soybean-based feeds compose a substantial proportion of the variable costs faced by both mainstream and emergent confined livestock producers. This research develops a method to provide a joint distribution of prices of corn and soybean meal at a future time. Black's 1976 option model and stochastic volatility jump diffusion (SVJD) model are compared in volatility forecasting performance. In general, SVJD is superior to Black's model, though their performance is both commodity-specific and forecasting horizon specific. The price forecast can assist livestock producers to assess different feed procurement strategies in terms of the distribution of costs projected for each strategy. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19399 |
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| Chen, Gang; Roberts, Matthew C.. |
| Weather conditions pose unique risks to dairy producers. Weather derivatives represent a potentially promising approach to augment dairy producers' risk management against adverse weather events. This study examines the effect of basis risk in weather derivatives, and whether the existence of basis risk mitigates the usefulness of weather derivatives for dairy risk management. Assuming a representative dairy producer has access to both weather derivatives and traditional heat abatement equipment, a closed-form solution for his/her optimal portfolio choice problem in the presence of basis risk is derived within a mean-variance utility framework. First-, second-, and third- degree stochastic dominance criteria are used to test the risk management... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19030 |
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